Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

For the past month, I have contributed to articles on FantasyPros with my thoughts on sleepers, breakouts, and busts. These blurbs were written at various points throughout the offseason, so some of the information compilated in this article may be outdated. I wanted to consolidate my takes one place to efficiently share my thoughts and be able to come back to after the season ends.

Sleepers:

Running Backs:

Jacory Croskey-Merritt - Currently free in drafts (RB62), Croskey-Merritt has a real chance to be the lead running back in Washington. He has consistently drawn rave reviews since being selected in the 7th round of the 2024 draft. Recently, it was reported that the Commanders are floating Brian Robinson Jr. in trade talks, perhaps signaling they don't have the plans for him they previously did. Should Robinson, who is currently not practicing due to the rumors, be dealt, Jacory (who goes by Bill) would presumably be thrust into a full-time role. I believe you should be stashing him on the end of all your benches and letting this situation play out - if it turns out to be nothing, the cost to you is nothing.

Bhayshul Tuten - Recently, a report came out that the Jaguars are looking to trade either Travis Etienne Jr. or Tank Bigsby. When we received similar reports about Brian Robinson Jr. in Washington, Bill Croskey-Merritt quickly shot up draft boards, but we have seen little, if any, reaction for Tuten. The current regime in Jacksonville did not draft Etienne or Bigsby, but they did draft Tuten - it's possible the trade rumors stem from their desire to put Tuten on the field. Things like pass protection and ball security may hold Tuten back, but if he is given the chance, we could see him take the starting job. Tuten possesses extreme explosiveness and enough pass-catching ability to give us what we want in fantasy.

Woody Marks - On July 26th, it was reported that Joe Mixon would miss an "extended period of time" with a foot injury. Since this report, there has been little, if anything, said of Mixon's health. Should Mixon miss time, Marks main competition for touches would likely be Nick Chubb, who doesn't look like his old self according to coach DeMeco Ryans. The Texans traded away a 2026 third round pick to acquire Marks 116th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Given his extensive pass catching work in college (averaging 52.2 receptions per season), if given a chance by the Texans, he could be very fantasy relevant.

Wide Receivers:

Emeka Egbuka - The all-time leader in receptions and receiving yards at Ohio State is drawing high praise at training camp. It isn't just a few highlight catches (although he's had those as well) - QB Baker Mayfield has raved about how Egbuka is "so cerebral" and "can play any receiver spot". Between his ability to play all-around the field, and Chris Godwin's ankle injury, Egbuka should be on the field early and often in 2025. It was a bit of a head scratching move when the Bucs spent their first-round pick on a WR, but they had a plan and so far, it appears to be working. If all that wasn't enough, in the research I've done, rookie WRs have historically been one of, if not the single best bet we can make in fantasy, eclipsing their ADP expectation by at least 2 points per game 37.5% of the time when their ADP falls in the first 10 rounds of fantasy drafts (Egbuka is currently going at 10.07).

Ricky Pearsall - After averaging 15.4 Half-PPR points per game over the final 3 games of last season, Pearsall now finds himself in a position to potentially enter the season the 49ers WR1. Between Deebo leaving, Aiyuk having no timeline to return from his ACL injury, and Jennings reaggregating a calf injury from earlier this offseason, very little is standing in the former first rounders way. He also has contingent upside to become even more necessary to the offense should Kittle or McCaffery get injured. Coach Kyle Shanahan, known for being a straight-shooter, has praised Pearsall for his performance throughout camp. Combine all this with the easiest schedule in the league, and his WR43 price tag feels like pure upside.

Dont'e Thornton Jr. - This one is a longshot, but you can do worse at the end of your draft than a 6'5 WR with 4.30 speed. The 4th round rookie has been the standout of Raiders camp, and has potentially beat out fellow rookie Jack Bech for a starting spot. During college, Thornton posted 1426 yards on 56 receptions (25.46 yards per catch). His skillset compliments that of Jakobi Meyers well, so they can coexist in the offense. We've learned to be weary of WRs from Tennessee, but he may be worth a late round shot just to see if he is involved in the game plan for week one, if he isn't then you can cut him.

Quarterback:

Jordan Love - Love is currently going as the QB17 in drafts - he's being drafted behind other solid pocket passers such as Purdy, Dak, Goff, Herbert, and Williams. He is in a great offensive environment and could see an increase in of TDs should some of the 15 Josh Jacobs rushed in last year come shift to the air. Love's path to being a fantasy difference maker is more or less the same as the QBs listed above, but it comes at the cheapest cost. Love was injured throughout the 2024 season and ran significantly less than the season before, which could regress and supply a small bump to his fantasy production.

Tight End:

Tyler Warren - Warren was the engine of Penn State's offense last year, as shown in his 30.2% dominator rating (90th percentile). The team looked to get him the ball however they could, handing him 26 carries in 2024, which he averaged 8.4 yards on. Warren now walks into a situation where he could see a large workload immediately - the Colts' leading receiver last year had 824 yards (Alec Pierce). The move to Daniel Jones provides much more stability to Warren's prospects - Jones has a career completion percentage of 64.1%, while Richardson's is 50.6%. His ADP of TE11 feels close to his floor; Warren possesses upside far beyond that, which does not seem properly priced into his cost. 

Breakouts:

Running Backs:

Omarion Hampton (RB16) - After being drafted in the first round of the NFL draft, the biggest factor holding back Hampton's ADP was the presence of Najee Harris, who suffered an firework related eye injury on July 4th. A month has since passed, and Najee's recovery has only progressed to walking laps around the field. Hampton appears to be the week 1 starter, and once he gets the job, it is unlikely he loses it. Last season, we saw J.K. Dobbins finish as the RB17 in points per game in this offense. Questions remain about potential pass game usage for Hampton, but his combination of talent and opportunity appears to be drastically underpriced.

Chase Brown - From weeks 9-17 (when Brown was healthy and took over as the clear Bengals RB1), he was the RB5 in fantasy points per game. During that stretch, he had the 2nd most receptions per game out of backs. Despite being undersized, Brown was the Bengals' exclusive goal-line back, taking 97.3% of the team's carries inside the 20. The Bengals added no real competition to the backfield - Brown should continue to enjoy near bell-cow level usage in one of, if not the best offense, in the NFL. The Bengals had 43 passing touchdowns vs only 11 rushing scores last year, should that regress more to expectation, Brown's upside could go even higher.

RJ Harvey (RB22) - If we are strictly talking league-winning upside, it is tough to beat what Harvey could be in fantasy this year, particularly in the 2nd half of the season. Generally speaking, in order to be a league-winning back, you need to catch passes, something coach Sean Payton has provided valued throughout his career. I expect Harvey to have a slower start to the season, splitting time with J.K. Dobbins. Following the bye week however, we often see rookies get more involved, which would put Harvey in prime position heading into the fantasy playoffs. Additionally, Dobbins has an extensive injury history, and should he go down, Harvey should be expected to immediately handle a heavy workload.

Travis Etienne Jr. - Whoever emerges as the RB in Jacksonville is likely to be a good pick in fantasy; they all are priced down due to being in an "ambiguous backfield", a term coined by JJ Zachariason. The rationale for attacking ambiguity in fantasy football lies in the risk vs reward: if you get it correct, you have a starter going much later than they should have, if you get it wrong, your loss of draft capital is fairly insignificant (Etienne's ADP is 90th overall). Etienne played every snap of the opening drive of the Jags' first preseason game and Tank Bigsby recently sent out a cryptic tweet that seems to insinuate he feels lied to about playing time - although you can only be so confident in any analysis of a string of emojis. Byshaul Tuten remains a threat, and is someone else I am targeting given his cheap cost in drafts, but he shouldn't drive you away from taking the chance on Etienne. Additionally, coach Liam Coen's Buccaneers were 3rd in the NFL in RB Targets last year; should this trend continue in Jacksonville, Etienne would seem more likely to benefit than the other backs.

Wide Receivers:

Xavier Worthy - Over Worthy's final 6 games in 2024 (counting the postseason), he averaged 16.3 Half-PPR Points per Game, which would have been good enough for WR2 on the season. Takeaway his explosion in the Superbowl and he still would have averaged 13.2 (WR16), well above his ADP of WR25. Teammate Rashee Rice is awaiting his suspension, and is simultaneously returning from a season ending knee injury. Even after Rice returns from injury, there is a world Worthy has cemented himself as the WR1 during his absence. The Chiefs have ranked bottom 4 in aDOT each of the past seasons, should this regress even to league average, Worthy and his 4.21 speed would be the clear beneficiary, although he can succeed even if it does not.

DK Metcalf - Metcalf is currently being drafted as the WR20 in Half-PPR drafts, a mark he has outperformed in 4 of the past 5 years. The one knock on Metcalf throughout his career has been weekly volatility from his relatively low number of receptions, leaving him reliant on yards and TDs. This could easily change in 2025 - over his past six healthy seasons, Aaron Rodgers has targeted his No. 1 WR 151.7 times over a 17-game pace. This includes a year where his number one was Allen Lazard; if you remove that, the average is 162 targets. Metcalf's career-high in targets is 141 - should that rise, as his large contract and poor WR competition suggest is very possible, he offers upside far beyond cost.

Marvin Harrison Jr. - Harrison was one of the biggest busts in fantasy last season, finishing as WR29 after being drafted at WR9 (Half-PPR). Although he was an enormous disappointment at cost, we shouldn't overreact - it's pretty easy to take a step back and see the path for the former 4th overall pick to experience a large year 2 breakout. Harrison led the league in uncatchable targets in 2024 (per PFF), he was heavily used downfield (12th in aDOT) and didn't get the benefit of many easy layup throws. Matt Harmon's Reception Perception charted Harrison are being fairly successful in nearly every route type except the nine (or "go") routes - it's hard to imagine the Cardinals not realizing this and Harrison benefitting from some regression in 2025. His 22% target share and 1.79 yards per route run are strong enough metrics, especially for a rookie, that we should not question Marv's ability to succeed at the NFL level, a change in usage may be all he needs to vastly outperform his ADP of WR16.

Drake London - London is one of a handful of WRs with a clear path to finishing as the overall WR1 in 2025. Last year, he was 3rd in the NFL in both targets (153) and target share (29.3%) - he also led the NFL in Red Zone target percentage (65.7%). He was the WR8 before QB Michael Penix Jr. took the helm in Week 16, after which he was the WR1 on the back of an other-worldly 37.9% target share. Although that number is bound to regress, with no significant additions to the offense, London will be the clear-cut alpha for the Falcons. His combination of volume and touchdown upside gives London to change to break fantasy should things break right this season.

Jaylen Waddle - Currently going as the WR31 in drafts, Waddle possesses multiple outs to fantasy success. The departure of Jonnu Smith may up targets for Waddle underneath, who feasted on them during his WR16 finish his rookie year. Should Tyreek Hill not be his old self, or be traded during the season as a few reports have indicated is possible, Waddle could emerge as the team's WR1. If the Dolphins offense gets away from its dink-and-dunk approach from the past couple of years and return to its 2022 form, Waddle could succeed regardless. During Tua's last full season (2023), Waddle had an exceptional 2.76 yards per route run; if given the opportunity to succeed, he is a good bet to beat his ADP expectation.

Chris Olave - 7 wide receivers have had a yards per route run of 2 or more each of the past 3 seasons - Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, AJ Brown, Davante Adams, and Chris Olave. While his QB situation is far from ideal for 2025, he was been able to post those numbers in relatively bad situations in the past. The concussion concerns should be considered with Olave, but at his WR34 price tag, the risk is more than baked into his cost. The NFL is hard to predict - it seems likely the Saints will be an awful team in 2025, but what if they are just a little better than we are assuming?

Quarterback:

Jalen Hurts - Only Lamar and Daniels had more rushing yards than Hurts in 2024 (630), and no QBs had more rushing scores (14) despite Hurts effectively missing three games due to a concussion. We shouldn't expect this to change, as Hurts' rushing yardage and TDs have been relatively steady throughout his time as a starter. What we can expect to change is his passing production - Hurts was on pace for 107 fewer pass attempts per 17 games than in his previous seven games as a result of the Eagles' success on the ground and large leads later in games. Philadelphia has the 4th hardest projected strength of schedule (per Sharp Football), so we should see them needing to throw the ball more often than in 2024. He is usually the 4th QB drafted, and sometimes falls below Joe Burrow - I believe he has the best combination of floor and ceiling at cost of any QB in fantasy.

Tight End:

David Njoku - When Joe Flacco was Njoku's QB in 2023, he was on pace for 102 receptions, 1326 yards, and 13.6 touchdowns. For as long as Flacco stays the Browns starter, Njoku has a good chance to beat his TE9 draft cost. The downside to Njoku is that he may have a rookie QB during the back-half of the season, including the fantasy playoffs. However, Njoku was to be the TE5 in PPG last season (TE10 in games without Jameis), indicating that he has a good chance to meet ADP expectations even with bad QB play. If, for some reason, we cannot foresee right now that Flacco is starting later in the season, Njoku may be the biggest steal in all of fantasy.

Busts:

Running Backs:

James Cook - According to FantasyPoints, no RB outproduced their expected TDs per game more than Cook last year. The sudden influx of scoring, a previous weak spot of Cook, covered up shortcomings in his performance, such as barely surpassing 1000 rushing yards in 16 games, and only catching 33 passes. Cook, likely due to his build, is thought of much more as a pass catcher than he truly is. For reference, Kyren Williams caught 34 passes last year, which is considered a weakness in his profile. Additionally, the Bills usage of multiple RBs holds Cook back from receiving anything near workhorse usage. This leaves touchdowns as his only true path to fantasy stardom; he likely needs to be efficient with the work he gets in order to pay off his ADP, with little room for upside barring injuries.

Jonathan Taylor - The Colts are currently projected for the 7th least points in the NFL. As a non-pass-catching back, Taylor's essentially has one path to paying off his mid-2nd round ADP - touchdowns, something that may be hard to come by for his offense. Taylor was a hero during the fantasy playoffs last year - averaging 30.3 Half-PPR points per game. This finish, which came on the back of an unsustainable 31.67 rushes per game again 3 of the worst teams in the league last year, potentially distorted many people's view of what was otherwise a fine, but not special, season from Taylor (RB19 per game in weeks 1-15). JT is a special player who certainly could prove me wrong, but other RBs going behind (Ex. Bucky Irving, Chase Brown) seem to have more outs to fantasy success.

Quinshon Judkins - Currently unsigned by the Browns, Judkins has not been present at training camp. Should he be signed by Cleveland this year, which is not a guarantee, it seems likely he would be placed on the commissioner's exempt list or be suspended for roughly 6 games. A world exists where Judkins temporarily evades punishment for the 2025 season, but even then, we don't know how much he would be able to produce in what projects to be a below-average offense. Rumors have circulated that the Browns are in the market for a RB, indicating they heavily question Judkins' availability. Drafting Judkins seems like a poor risk-reward proposition.

Breece Hall - The Jets have repeatedly mentioned their desire to use multiple running backs throughout the offseason. Recently, Jets beat writer Zack Rosenblatt reported Hall "wasn't the best running back in training camp". Last year, Hall was 8th in the NFL in snap share, and 15th in opportunity share - both of which seem in jeopardy. Hall finished last year as the RB16, largely thanks to his production in the receiving game. QB Justin Fields targets RBs more than one would think, but if Hall has limited snaps, it may not matter. There don't seem to be many paths to Breece substantially outperforming his ADP - barring a trade to a better situation, which is hard to bet on.

Wide Receivers:

Terry McLaurin - Prior to last season, McLaurin's career 17-game pace was 80 catches for 1126 yards and 5.4 TDs. That trend generally continued, as he caught 82 passes for 1096 yards, but happened to pop for 13 TDs - his TD rate ballooned from a career rate of 6.6% to 15.8% in 2024. Some of this increase is rightfully attributed to an improvement in QB play, but enormous regression is likely headed McLaurin's way. FantasyPros currently has Terry projected for 8.3 Tds in 2025, if he caught that many last year he would have tied for WR23 in Half-PPR points per game. Pair all of this with the Commanders difficult strength of schedule and Terry's current holdout/trade request (although I expect him to be signed by Washington) and there is enough risk for me to choose to go elsewhere in the 4th round of drafts.

Tee Higgins - Historically, highly drafted WR2s have been a bad bet in fantasy drafts. Between this and his expected TD regression I am staying away from Higgins this year. I wrote a full length article on his outlook you can check out here.

Quarterback:

Joe Burrow - Despite having Burrow as my QB5, which is right around where he tends to go in drafts, I am weary of selecting him this season. The issue I take with him is that he is currently being drafted right around the four elite rushing quarterbacks - all of whom have much safer floors than Burrow. Last year, Burrow threw a league-leading 43 touchdowns; this year, his over/under is set for 33.5. If you kept all his stats the same as last year, but gave him 9.5 fewer passing TDs, he would have been the QB7 in points per game (4-point passing TD). Due to his lack of rushing, Burrow needs to have another extreme outlier touchdown season in order to pay off his ADP - something difficult to predict, making Burrow difficult to bank on high in fantasy drafts.

• I don't have much interest paying up for any expensive pocket passers (Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield). They need an outlier TD rate to truly pay off - I would rather take a rushing QB or get a pocket pass (or 2) later in drafts and hope they happen to pop in the TD department.

  
  

Tight End:

Mark Andrews - Excluding his rookie season, Andrews set career per game lows in targets, receptions and yards in 2024. He finished as the TE5 on the back of a career high 11 TDs, scoring on 20% of his receptions. Isaiah Likely is expected to return from his injury early in the season, which pours cold water on a potential for a hot start from Andrews. On top of Andrews own TD regression, it is likely Lamar Jackson throws less TDs than last year - he had an 8.65% TD rate last year and has a career rate of 6.4%.