Tee Higgins 2025 Fantasy Outlook
- Charlie Sisian
- Jul 20
- 3 min read
Updated: Jul 21
Cincinnati Bengals WR Tee Higgins is currently being drafted as the WR13 with the 2.09 (21st overall) on Sleeper. Despite missing 5 games in 2024, Higgins finished as the WR17 last season and was WR5 on a points per game basis. He recently signed a 4-year, $115 million-dollar, extension with the team, removing any doubt about where he will be playing this upcoming season.
Despite all this, red flags exist in Higgin’s profile specifically at the current price points in drafts. Higgins set a career high in TDs last season (10), scoring one on 13.69% of his receptions, a substantial outlier from his average of 9.3% in all other seasons. For reference, Mike Evans, known for his touchdown catching ability, has a career rate of 12.55%. TD regression is likely coming for Higgins, who posted the worst yards per catch of his career last year. His yards per route run were roughly the same as in 2022, when he posted a WR18 finish playing a full season.
As the WR2 on his own team, Higgins will likely need another outlier TD season to pay off his 2.09 price tag. Historically he has not lived off volume, playing second fiddle to fellow running mate Ja’Marr Chase. Volume is much steadier than touchdowns on a year to year basis, and fantasy managers are essentially being asked to pay a premium for Higgins because he caught 10 TDs last year, something he had never done before. Take Higgins 10 scores last year, and make it his previous career average of 6, and suddenly he becomes the WR29 overall and WR15 per game. In a game of probability, a career average is a better bet than a single season. It is worth noting that Higgins did see a fairly higher increase in targets per game last year, however, this should be caveated under the fact that the Bengals were in a lot of negative game scripts and shootouts last season, creating more opportunities for receivers. Burrow threw 43 touchdown passes last season, but has an over/under of 32.5 in betting markets for this upcoming season, meaning 10.5 less touchdowns are expected to be available through the air. Assuming a return closer to the norm, it’s more likely we see Higgins impacted than Chase.
The graph below depicts the success of selecting an NFL WR1 vs WR2 as your fantasy WR2, with WR1s seeming to have more stability and upside:
It wasn’t too long ago that Higgins was viewed in the same bucket as DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle as “Elite WR2s”. In 2023, the three of them went within 9 picks of each other, Higgins being the last of the bunch to go. Now Higgins is being drafted 30 picks before Waddle and 34 before Smith. Higgins profile deserves to be the first of the three to be drafted, but the gap is currently far too wide. Since 2023 drafts, Higgins has averaged 14.95 PPR points per game, Smith has averaged 14.72, and Waddle has averaged 12, but 13.11 when Tua plays. Higgins is in the most pass happy offense of the three, but that has also been the case for the past two seasons. Through free agency, the Bengals have begun to address their defense, and likely will continue to do so in the draft. This may indicate a return to the world that put Higgins in the same bucket as these WRs just a couple years ago.
Higgins has missed 5 games in each of the past two seasons. Both times, it was a combination of smaller injuries throughout the season instead of one large one, which could be viewed as unluckier than seemingly constantly being banged up. Additionally, his quarterback, Joe Burrow, carries more of an injury risk than most likely realize, missing 15 games throughout his 5-year career.
While Higgins is a strong fantasy player, whose spike games provide a lot of value to managers, I believe he is likely to bust as a second-round pick. The price point is much closer to his ceiling than his floor, and even a career season may leave you wanting more. His 17-game pace across his career is 79 catches for 1103 yards and 8 touchdowns, essentially the exact numbers Courtland Sutton put up last year (81, 1081, 8). Imagine if you took Sutton in the 2nd last season.
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