Fantasy's Ignored X-Factor

A few years ago, I would’ve laughed at the very idea I am about to propose. I hate kickers in fantasy as much as, honestly likely more than, the next guy. For those of you in leagues with them, I am sorry. I’ve spent hours scraping through data looking for a way to predict their performance, looking to find an edge nobody else did, never finding anything notable. However, that doesn’t mean there is not an edge to be had. Although spreadsheets and models may not like it, some players are just outliers.

Brandon Aubrey is an outlier.

In his two seasons in the NFL, Aubrey has scored 181 (2023) and 192 (2024) fantasy points. Nobody else has done that in consecutive seasons since at least 2010. The closest we have seen is Stephan Gostkowski from 2013-2015, when he scored 179, 170, and 171 fantasy points.

Fantasy draft selections should be made with value over replacement player (VORP) in mind. This is the reason we draft difference making TEs highly, even if they score fewer total points than the RBs or WRs going around them. Getting significant production from a position your opponent doesn’t leaves them behind the 8-ball.

VORP is calculated as how much your player score compared to a replacement level player. For kickers, that would be the 12^th ranked kicker, since nobody in a standard 12-man league should theoretically be playing anybody worse. For RBs, it would be the RB24, WRs the WR36 (assuming you play 3 WRs) etc. 

Aubrey’s average VORP over the past 2 years has been 2.53 fantasy points per game. Looking at data from 2017-2023, that is roughly the positional difference (or better) you would have received from the following, even after adjusting for injury:

·       QBs drafted in rounds 2-4 (2.45) – Assuming 1QB league

·       RBs drafted in round 2 (2.30)

·       WRs drafted in round 6 (1.16)

Of course, Aubrey should be drafted later than we take these players. He does not have the ability to provide an extreme advantage the way hitting on that 2^nd round running back does. We also cannot be as confident in predicting his production as we can with other positions, he can only score as much as the team gives him the chance to. That being said, thus far into his career, Aubrey hasn’t given us much reason to bet against him.

So when is it ok to take the chance? The good news is that assuming you are in a league with people who generally know how to play fantasy football, Aubrey should be available late into drafts. Know your league and how long you can wait to take him, but any time after pick 120, I am comfortable taking the swing to see if this trend continues. The players you are drafting at that part of the draft are unlikely to ever crack your lineup, meanwhile you know Aubrey will be in it every single week. It may not work, but it’s a gamble I believe is worth taking.