Rookie Fever - The Inconsistent Valuation of Rookie Picks

A pick today is worth more than a pick tomorrow. But how much more?

It turns out dynasty managers are inconsistent in how to account for the passage of time, creating an opportunity to buy where the market is inefficient.

The data below is pulled from KeepTradeCut’s 1QB rankings (Dynasty Rankings - KeepTradeCut). If you are unfamiliar, KeepTradeCut crowdsources dynasty rankings to assign numerical values to every player and pick in dynasty. It can serve as a proxy to how your league mates likely feel about an asset at a given time.

It is important to clarify that this analysis compares the value of the same draft pick over time. It tracked how much a specific asset (Ex. A 2026 Mid 1^st pick) was worth in 2024, 2025, and 2026. I compared its increase (or decrease) in cost from 2024 to 2025 and once again from 2025 to 2026.

2026 picks were not compared to 2027 picks. This removes any risk that increases or decreases in costs relates to the strength of a particular rookie class.

Interestingly, late round draft picks appreciate more in value per year than early round ones.

Rookie Draft Pick	Appreciation 2-1 Year Away	Appreciation 1 Year Away – Rookie Draft
1st Round	9.22%	5.65%
2nd Round	15.73%	11.39%
3rd Round	23.63%	18.21%
4th Round	30.58%	25.81%

Knowing how much to discount future picks is more of an art than a science. The exact amount they should be discounted is open for debate. However, there isn’t any reason later round picks should be discounted at a different rate than first rounders (or vice versa). The value of draft picks should hold steady relative to each other. Instead, over the next few years, a 2028 second round pick will get closer and closer to the value of a 2028 first (while remaining significantly less valuable).

My inclination is that as dynasty managers can begin to place names to picks, they get excited about the potential and hype of the upcoming class and push the value of non-first round picks up. There will always be players to get excited or talk yourself into in rookie drafts, waiting to know who they are to increase prices is not a rational way of managing your roster.

The graph below depicts the growth 2025 and 2026 draft picks saw in the years leading up to rookie drafts. All picks at indexed at 100 two years before they are used in rookie drafts. A value of 200 would mean a pick has doubled in value since that date.

Another interesting finding is that picks 2 years into the future are discounted at an extra 3-5%. Logically, a pick 2 years away should steadily gain its value over time. However, they disproportionately gain value when transitioning from being 2 years to 1 year away. Using the table above, the average first round pick increases in value by 9.22% during this span. For reference, Tetairoa McMillan’s value increased by 9.76% following his rookie of the year campaign. You’re getting that return just for being patient. Of course, you’d rather have had McMillan because he scored you fantasy points in the process as well.

If you are a rebuilding team, go buy picks 2-3 years into the future. Contending teams disproportionately devalue these picks and they are great bets to gain value over time.

Perhaps the truth is that near rookie drafts the value of late round picks get inflated. If you feel that is the case, trade them away at their newfound value and take the profit.

For contending teams, this discussion is less relevant. It is sometimes necessary to move future assets to win now but be cautious of moving a pick 2 years in the future at a heavy discount.