Ambiguous Pass Catcher Strategy
Human beings are not completely rational creatures. We are all still born with the same instincts and thought processes that allowed us to survive as cavemen thousands of years ago, even though those instincts are not always best suited for achieving our goals in the modern world. In the past, life was more about not losing than it was about winning – mere survival was our top priority.
Psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky dubbed this “loss aversion”. They found that losing $100 hurts twice as much as gaining $100, even though rationally speaking, they should feel the same. This is where the saying “the stock market hates uncertainty” comes from – when presented with ambiguity, people bake in more of the downside risk than truly exists. If you are investing in the long-term, these market downswings are a great time to win in the long run.
Enough stock market talk - take this fantasy football example: it is completely irrational that A.J Brown’s best ball ADP rose by roughly a full round after being officially traded to the Patriots despite everyone knowing the trade was coming. Nonetheless, with official information, people felt freer to act. Prior to the news, ambiguity was technically present, and drafters were overbaking it into his cost. People were feeling a need for cognitive closure, which is defined as “the desire for ‘an answer on a given topic, any answer … compared to confusion and ambiguity.’” When Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, and Deebo Samuel signed, their prices were almost destined to go up, regardless of where they went.
In our fantasy football leagues, we are not trying to merely survive – we want to come in first. The issue is that our brains are still naturally better at not losing than they are at winning. We need to be swinging for the fences, not accumulating singles.
Enter Ambiguous Situations.
JJ Zachariason of LateRound Fantasy has done great work showing why ambiguous running backs are strong bets in fantasy football drafts. Shoutout to him for answering some questions I had when working through the data on them. If you are unfamiliar, the ambiguous backfield theory states that we should target RB rooms where it is unclear who the starter will be. Other drafters will over-discount these players, creation an opportunity for us to profit big by drafting them. The reward outweighs the risk we take on.
With the ambiguous pass catching rooms present in the middle of drafts this year, I looked into if the same logic applied to them as for RBs. Additionally, I proved out why JJ is correct about targeting ambiguous RBs and investigated which ambiguous RBs may be our best bets in 2026.
The ADP and scoring data used was from PPR leagues for the last 10 seasons (2016-2025) on FantasyPros.
Ambiguous Pass Catchers
The middle rounds of drafts this year present fantasy managers with the question how to handle crowded receiving rooms. These rounds of drafts as chock-full of WR talent, it is up to us to decide to target ambiguous rooms (such as Chicago and Jacksonville), or “safer” options such as DJ Moore, Terry McLaurin, Mike Evans, or DK Metcalf. Many drafters’ natural inclination is to take the player more guaranteed to be the WR1 on their team. We know that thinking is troublesome with RBs, what about pass catchers?
For the purposes of this study, I defined an ambiguous pass catcher as one drafted between rounds 3 and 10 with a teammate pass catcher drafted in rounds 3 and 10 within 36 picks of them.
To begin, ambiguous WRs and TEs should not be treated the same. Ambiguous WRs are better bets than non-ambiguous WRs. They are safer, meeting or exceeding ADP expectation at a 3.5% higher clip than non-ambiguous WRs. They also possess upside, surpassing ADP expectation by 3+ points 2.7% more often and 5+ points 3.4% more often. They have both a higher floor and ceiling. Draft them.
Meanwhile, ambiguous TEs are worse bets than non-ambiguous ones, they exceed ADP by 3+ points at under half the rate. This is a concerning data point for Colston Loveland, Tucker Kraft, George Kittle, and Dallas Goedert. Meanwhile, Tyler Warren, Harold Fannin, Kyle Pitts, Travis Kelce and Isaiah Likely appear solid bets at ADP.
I found that in ambiguous situations, the top drafted pass catchers on a team is a worse bet than their later drafted teammates, outproducing ADP expectation by 3+ points 50% less. In fact, they have been worse bets than simply opting for non-ambiguous pass catchers at similar costs. The opportunity to profit comes when we are able to buy into an ambiguous situation at a reduced cost later in drafts.
Rather than paying the premium for the players listed first below, buy in on their later drafted teammates listed after them.
Colston Loveland – Luther Burden, Rome Odunze
Mike Evans – George Kittle, De’Zhaun Stribling
Carnell Tate – Wan’Dale Robinson
Christian Watson – Jayden Reed, Matthew Golden
Park Washington – BTJ, Jakobi Meyers
DK Metcalf – Michael Pittman
Jaylen Waddle – Courtland Sutton
I am not in on Sutton in drafts this year but included him as he does qualify under the criteria listed. I like Waddle at cost and would prefer to take Bryant late than Sutton in the middle rounds.
Pass catching rooms with 3+ pass catchers drafted in the first 10 rounds of drafts are strong bets, and those with 3+ pass catchers drafted in the first 8 rounds are even better.
Teams with 3+ pass catchers drafted in the first 10 rounds include:
Detroit (ARSB, Jameson Williams, LaPorta)
Arizona (McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson)
Chicago (Loveland, Burden, Odunze)
Dallas (Lamb, Pickens, Ferguson)
Not truly an ambiguous room with the 2 elite WRs
Philadelphia (Smith, Lemon, Goedert)
Indianapolis (Warren, Pierce, Downs)
Green Bay (Watson, Kraft, Reed)
Jacksonville (Washington, BTJ, Meyers)
Those with 3+ pass catchers drafted in the first 8 rounds:
Detroit
Arizona
Chicago
Within those 3+ pass catcher rooms, the third pass catcher being drafted has proven the best bet to exceed expectation. Those players this year are: Rome Odunze, Sam Laporta, Michael Wilson, Josh Downs, Jakobi Meyers, Jake Ferguson, Dallas Goedert, and Jayden Reed.
I’ll choose to bypass the TEs, leaving Odunze, Wilson, Downs, Meyers and Reed as targets per this study.
Ambiguous RBs
There are two types of ambiguous running backs, the first group being “clearly ambiguous” - those drafted RB19-42 with a teammate very close to them (we will define as within 24 picks). This year this group includes the New England, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Denver, Minnesota, and Washington backfields.
The second group is “somewhat ambiguous” – those with one RB drafted inside the top 24RBs, and another within the top 42, but not within 24 picks. This year this group includes the Rams, Bears, and Buccaneers.
The distinction between these groups matter because we should be actively targeting clearly ambiguous backfields, while mostly fading somewhat ambiguous ones.
Clearly Ambiguous Backfields
First, let’s dive into the data on clearly ambiguous backfields:
They are slightly less safe bets than non-clearly ambiguous backs, reaching or exceeding ADP expectation 35.4% of the time, compared to 40.1% for all other RBs. Your odds of a single are 4.7% worse.
They are slightly less likely to outperform ADP expectation by 3+ PPR PPG (11.3% vs 12.9%). Your odds of a double are 1.6% worse.
They are way more likely to outperform ADP expectation by 5+ PPR PPG (7.6% vs 2.8%). Your odds of a league-winning homerun are 4.8% better.
Giving up a little bit of floor for that kind of league-winning potential is a bet worth making repeatedly. Let other drafters accumulate singles, they like the feeling of security despite the fact that they are acting against their own goal of winning the league.
As is the case with essentially any RB, the preferred bet in these ambiguous rooms should be the pass catching back.
Pass catching ambiguous backs (35+ receptions) outperform ADP expectation by 3+ PPR PPG at a 21.4% clip, compared to 5.9% for non-pass catching ambiguous backs.
They exceed expectation by 5+ PPG 17.8% of the time, compared to 2.0% for ambiguous non-pass catchers
You should admit to yourself you don’t know better than the market who the starter will be, just draft the one who will score more fantasy points should they win the job.
Clearly ambiguous backfields this year are: New England, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Denver, Minnesota, and Washington backfields. The players in bold are my target(s).
TreVeyon Henderson/Rhamondre Stevenson
Jaylen Warren/Rico Dowdle (Take Either – Similar pass catching profiles)
Jonathan Brooks/Chuba Hubbard
RJ Harvey/JK Dobbins (Additionally – Jonah Coleman is a great late-round dart)
Aaron Jones Sr./Jordan Mason
My Favorite: Rachaad White/Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Final note - I found that historically speaking, the second running back drafted from these rooms has actually been the better bet than the first one. These players are drafted closely together, so I wouldn’t read into the RB1/RB2 designation too much, but don’t be scared off just because someone appears to be their team’s RB2.
Somewhat ambiguous backfields
Disclosure: Dating back to 2016, there are only 31RBs that have been part of “somewhat ambiguous” rooms – this small sample size means these numbers are likely less predictive than those above for clearly ambiguous rooms
Somewhat ambiguous backs are way less safe than other backs drafted near them.
They reach or exceed ADP expectation 29% of the time, compared to 41.1% for all other RBs. Your odds of a single are 12.1% worse.
The team’s RB1 (Kyren, Bucky, Swift) have been a better bet than the RB2, meeting expectation 38.4% of the time compared to 22.2% for RB2s (Corum, Gainwell, Monangui)
They are way less likely to outperform ADP expectation by 3+ PPR PPG (6.5% vs 13.3%). Your odds of a double are 6.8% worse
They are slightly more likely to outperform ADP expectation by 5+ PPR PPG (6.5% vs 4.0%). Your odds of a league-winning homerun are 2.5% better.
The floor you are giving up when drafting these players, especially the RB2s, is not worth the slight increase in league-winning potential. These situations are enough of a split where the RB1 has a hard time paying off their high cost, but not enough of a split to allow the RB2 to be overly fantasy relevant in his own right.
Instead of drafting Kyren/Bucky/Swift, opt for a standalone RB1 such as Hall, Etienne, Tuten, or Price. David Montgomery fits the bill as well, although he scares me as a traditional dead-zone back. Due to the dead-zone risks of the 3rd and 4th rounds at RB this year, I’d prefer to just draft a different position and wait for RBs later in the draft.
Rather than drafting Corum, Gainwell, or Monangui, you can get Harvey/Dobbins, Rachaad White/JCM, Hubbard, Aaron Jones/Jordan Mason.
On my Soapbox - Bhayshul Tuten is not an Ambiguous Back
Before we move on, I’d also like to mention that Bhayshul Tuten is not an ambiguous back. He is being drafted as the RB23 at 56th overall. His teammate, Chris Rodriguez, is being drafted as the RB44 at 134th overall. Thank drafters discounting Tuten due to this “ambiguity” and take him with confidence. This situation feels similar to drafters being scared off of Travis Etienne at RB30, 92nd overall, and Javonte Williams at RB36, 107th overall last season, despite their closest drafted teammates (Tank Bigsby, Jaydon Blue) being complete dart throws at RB40, 130th overall, and RB45, 138th overall, respectively.
When you find yourself scared to make a pick because of the potential downside in drafts, remind yourself that their risk is likely over-accounted for in their price. Being uncomfortable means you’re probably doing it right!
Good luck in drafts this weekend! Enjoy the holiday and college football!
Cognitive Closure Definition: Examination of Psychometric Properties of the Need for Closure Scale-Short Form among Turkish College Students - PMC
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